Dispatch I: 5 November 2004. Voting and arson.
I'm inclined to think of this as more of an experiment than anything else. I tend to forget about things I'm supposed to keep track of and update regularly; wherefore I suppose it is not in my interests to imagine that this will be much different. Regardless--we shall try.
*three minutes and fifty-two seconds pass*
It is now inscribed at the top of my monitor. 'UPDATE BLOG,' it says. No, wait. Damn it. It actually says 'UPATE BLOG.' I also wrote it small enough that there's no chance of adding in a 'D.' Hopefully, I'll remember well enough anyhow. 'D' is a terribly unimportant letter.
Two issues to address right now, related in comment: political activism amongst America's youth, and arson.
***
In the wake of the November 2nd presidential election, there has been a significant reaction along the lines of, 'what happened to the youth 'get out the vote' campaigns?' You know the one's I'm talking about--rock the vote! Vote or die! If you don't vote, you are a worthless excuse for a human being; also, you smell bad. It tends towards the level of, 'it's the children's fault Bush won.' Here I would like to call bullshit. I've been facing this argument increasingly, and it's very, very little more than baseless apologist nonsense.
Let us examine some statistics:
The voting numbers of the 18-29 crowd increased nine percent between 2000 and 2004, and reached 51.6 percent. In this election, close to twenty-one million persons turned out to vote. For your records they favoured Kerry 54 to Bush 44 percent (incidentally this is a larger margin than that by which they supported Gore in 2000). 1 The final Bush margin of victory in the popular vote, according to CNN, is around 3.5 million votes 2
Of the youth vote, 2 percent supported someone other than George Bush or John Kerry. Taking only the Bush-Kerry voters into account, however (44-54), 10 percent are responsible for changing the margin of victory (i.e., if 10 people vote for Bush and 12 for Kerry, only 2 represent the difference by which Kerry wins). Given the youth turnout of 20,996,000 voters 1, ten percent is equal to 2,099,600 voters contributing to the difference. This is at the actual, 51.6 percent voter turnout. Now imagine that it is at zero percent, with no youth voters. This 'difference' now must be added to the margin of Bush victory, for a total of around 5.2 million votes.
At the actual turnout, the 51.6 percent of youth who voted represent 2.1 of that 5.2 million, or about 40.4 percent of the difference. In order for them to make a difference, they must make up the rest of that difference--in other words they must increase their numbers by a factor of around 2.48, presuming of course that the same ratio of Kerry-Bush votes persists. Multiplying the youth turnout percentage by 2.48, we find that in order for the youth vote alone to have swung the popular vote in favour of John Kerry, voter turnout would've needed to hit 128 percent. Richard Daley would be proud.
It should be noted, however, that by a quirk of the electoral college the actual presidency came down to the state of Ohio, with 20 electoral votes. Had Ohio gone to John Kerry, he would've taken the presidency; so what of the statistics for Ohio?
5.48 million people voted in Ohio, and according to exit polls 21 percent of them were in the 18-29 demographic--in other words, around 1.15 million votes. They voted for Kerry over Bush at a ratio of 56-42 (again, 2 percent going to other parties). 3
Presuming that the exit polls are fairly accurate, this means that 14 percent of the voters contributed to the difference between the two candidates; this gives us a 'real' figure of 161,000 persons. The current margin of victory for Bush is 136,000 votes. Imagining a 0% youth turnout, then, we get a difference of 136,000+161,000 votes. Kerry would thus have to recover 297,000 votes to take Ohio, and the presidency. CIRCLE tells us that youth turnout in 'battleground' states was 64 percent, so we'll guess that this was the figure for Ohio. At that turnout rate, 54.2 percent of the difference was made up by the youth vote; in other words for the youth vote alone to make up the rest, they would have to increase their turnout by a factor of 1.85. Given the current turnout of 64 percent, this tells us that the youth voting percentage would've had to equal 118.4 percent in order for Kerry to break even in Ohio, and higher to win.
Getting the picture? It was impossible--or close to it--for the 18-29 voter demographic--the only one that supported Kerry--to change the turnout of the elections. Would it have been nice for them to turn out in greater numbers? Sure. Are they a worthwhile scapegoat? Absolutely not. An increase of nine percent, and five million voters, is impressive. I commend my generation for this.
Second topic.
There are signs in front of the building where I live telling us to please stop starting fires in the building because it's illegal and not very neighbourly besides. It strikes me that in order to flesh this out more I should find a copy of the signs and put it up here, so... so I'll do that when I get the chance. The fact that this is worth telling us startles me.
Anyway, vi snakkes!
-Alex
1. "Youth Turnout Up Sharply in 2004." 3 November 2004. CIRCLE. available online: Link
2. "Election Results." Last updated 5 November 2004. No author. available online: Link
3. "Full Ohio Exit Polls." Last updated 5 November 2004. No author. available online: Link
*three minutes and fifty-two seconds pass*
It is now inscribed at the top of my monitor. 'UPDATE BLOG,' it says. No, wait. Damn it. It actually says 'UPATE BLOG.' I also wrote it small enough that there's no chance of adding in a 'D.' Hopefully, I'll remember well enough anyhow. 'D' is a terribly unimportant letter.
Two issues to address right now, related in comment: political activism amongst America's youth, and arson.
***
In the wake of the November 2nd presidential election, there has been a significant reaction along the lines of, 'what happened to the youth 'get out the vote' campaigns?' You know the one's I'm talking about--rock the vote! Vote or die! If you don't vote, you are a worthless excuse for a human being; also, you smell bad. It tends towards the level of, 'it's the children's fault Bush won.' Here I would like to call bullshit. I've been facing this argument increasingly, and it's very, very little more than baseless apologist nonsense.
Let us examine some statistics:
The voting numbers of the 18-29 crowd increased nine percent between 2000 and 2004, and reached 51.6 percent. In this election, close to twenty-one million persons turned out to vote. For your records they favoured Kerry 54 to Bush 44 percent (incidentally this is a larger margin than that by which they supported Gore in 2000). 1 The final Bush margin of victory in the popular vote, according to CNN, is around 3.5 million votes 2
Of the youth vote, 2 percent supported someone other than George Bush or John Kerry. Taking only the Bush-Kerry voters into account, however (44-54), 10 percent are responsible for changing the margin of victory (i.e., if 10 people vote for Bush and 12 for Kerry, only 2 represent the difference by which Kerry wins). Given the youth turnout of 20,996,000 voters 1, ten percent is equal to 2,099,600 voters contributing to the difference. This is at the actual, 51.6 percent voter turnout. Now imagine that it is at zero percent, with no youth voters. This 'difference' now must be added to the margin of Bush victory, for a total of around 5.2 million votes.
At the actual turnout, the 51.6 percent of youth who voted represent 2.1 of that 5.2 million, or about 40.4 percent of the difference. In order for them to make a difference, they must make up the rest of that difference--in other words they must increase their numbers by a factor of around 2.48, presuming of course that the same ratio of Kerry-Bush votes persists. Multiplying the youth turnout percentage by 2.48, we find that in order for the youth vote alone to have swung the popular vote in favour of John Kerry, voter turnout would've needed to hit 128 percent. Richard Daley would be proud.
It should be noted, however, that by a quirk of the electoral college the actual presidency came down to the state of Ohio, with 20 electoral votes. Had Ohio gone to John Kerry, he would've taken the presidency; so what of the statistics for Ohio?
5.48 million people voted in Ohio, and according to exit polls 21 percent of them were in the 18-29 demographic--in other words, around 1.15 million votes. They voted for Kerry over Bush at a ratio of 56-42 (again, 2 percent going to other parties). 3
Presuming that the exit polls are fairly accurate, this means that 14 percent of the voters contributed to the difference between the two candidates; this gives us a 'real' figure of 161,000 persons. The current margin of victory for Bush is 136,000 votes. Imagining a 0% youth turnout, then, we get a difference of 136,000+161,000 votes. Kerry would thus have to recover 297,000 votes to take Ohio, and the presidency. CIRCLE tells us that youth turnout in 'battleground' states was 64 percent, so we'll guess that this was the figure for Ohio. At that turnout rate, 54.2 percent of the difference was made up by the youth vote; in other words for the youth vote alone to make up the rest, they would have to increase their turnout by a factor of 1.85. Given the current turnout of 64 percent, this tells us that the youth voting percentage would've had to equal 118.4 percent in order for Kerry to break even in Ohio, and higher to win.
Getting the picture? It was impossible--or close to it--for the 18-29 voter demographic--the only one that supported Kerry--to change the turnout of the elections. Would it have been nice for them to turn out in greater numbers? Sure. Are they a worthwhile scapegoat? Absolutely not. An increase of nine percent, and five million voters, is impressive. I commend my generation for this.
Second topic.
There are signs in front of the building where I live telling us to please stop starting fires in the building because it's illegal and not very neighbourly besides. It strikes me that in order to flesh this out more I should find a copy of the signs and put it up here, so... so I'll do that when I get the chance. The fact that this is worth telling us startles me.
Anyway, vi snakkes!
-Alex
1. "Youth Turnout Up Sharply in 2004." 3 November 2004. CIRCLE. available online: Link
2. "Election Results." Last updated 5 November 2004. No author. available online: Link
3. "Full Ohio Exit Polls." Last updated 5 November 2004. No author. available online: Link
posted by Alex Osaki at 6:20 pm
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